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China has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.